Baseline
Every revenue and usage comparison in Ubrella uses the same definition:
Baseline = the value of a metric over the 7 days immediately before the current 7-day window.
“Revenue 24 % below baseline” means: the last seven days brought in 24 % less than the seven days before that.
Why seven against seven
Section titled “Why seven against seven”Comparing day against day produces an alarm every Sunday. Comparing week against week cancels weekday effects, is easy to say out loud, and is what most indie developers already do by eye in the RevenueCat chart.
When the rule fires
Section titled “When the rule fires”| Change vs baseline | Attention item |
|---|---|
| better, or within −25 % | none |
| −25 % to −50 % | attention |
| worse than −50 % | critical |
The same thresholds apply to revenue (RevenueCat) and active users (PostHog), and to every project.
When it stays quiet on purpose
Section titled “When it stays quiet on purpose”Two guards keep the inbox honest:
- At least 14 days of snapshots. Before that there is no “seven days before” to compare with. New projects show baseline rules start in n days on their overview.
- A small absolute floor. Falling from €4 to €2 is −50 % and not worth an alarm. Baseline rules only fire when the baseline itself is above roughly €20 revenue or 50 active users.
Resolution
Section titled “Resolution”Baseline items cannot resolve themselves — the system cannot know whether −24 % is a problem or a holiday. They wait for you: Resolve when handled, Dismiss when not interesting. If the metric recovers and drops again later, that is a new item.